Scenario thinking, scenario analysisS
Scenario planning:also called scenario thinking or scenario analysis,
is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make
flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and
generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence.
In business applications, the emphasis on gaming the behavior of
opponents was reduced (shifting more toward a game against nature). At
Royal Dutch/Shell for example, scenario planning was viewed as
changing mindsets about the exogenous part of the world, prior to
formulating specific strategies.
Systems thinking: is the process of understanding how things influence
one another within a whole. In nature, systems thinking examples
include ecosystems in which various elements such as air, water,
movement, plants, and animals work together to survive or perish. In
organizations, systems consist of people, structures, and processes
that work together to make an organization healthy or unhealthy.
Base Case Scenario:
A base-case system evaluation uses test data sets developed as part of
comprehensive testing programs. It is used to verify correct systems
operations before acceptance, as well as periodic validation.
Worst-case scenario: is a situation where everything that could go
wrong, has gone wrong.
Murphy's law: is an adage or epigram that is typically stated as:
"Anything that can go wrong will go wrong".